Nifty Weekly Outlook: June 17 – 21

Our recent stance of the Nifty sliding to 5,650-5,700 has played out. The index last week fell 30-points shy of the target of 5,650. The sharp bounce back on Friday was impressive and the completion of a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern is a comforting factor for the bullish camp.  Let’s address the key question – Is the worst over? Before answering the question, it makes sense to put things in perspective. Have a look at the daily chart of the Nifty featured below.

The bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows is not disturbed by the recent crack in the Nifty. While the fall from the recent high of 6,230 has been sharp and vicious, it does not alter the bullish set-up of higher highs and higher lows. A fall below the major swing low of 5,477 would make us concerned about the medium-term bullish stance.

So, for someone wanting to build a long-term portfolio, the Nifty is now entering a BUY zone and offers a low risk entry. A breakout past 5,970 would make us believe that the downward correction is over. Until then, long-term investors may use the SIP route or buy in a staggered manner with a stop-loss below the 5,477-level, adjusted for volatility.

Let’s look at the Nifty from a short-term traders perspective. Over to the 15-minute chart featured below.

The bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows is pretty much intact in the 15-minute time-frame. Shorting on rally would be preferred strategy until there is evidence to the contrary. As highlighted in the chart,  5,860-5,890 would be the first level to hunt for short positions. Any signs of weakness there would present shorting opportunity with a stop loss at 5,990, for a target of 5,650-5,700.