Price Action Overview:
Nifty Energy Index has delivered a decisive bullish reversal on the weekly chart, surging 7.03% this week, marking its strongest weekly gain since January 2024. Importantly, this powerful candle has emerged from a well-defined support zone within a prolonged consolidation phase, signaling a clear shift in control from bears to bulls. The candle closed at the week’s high with no upper wick, reflecting sustained buying interest and absence of selling pressure despite a volatile budget week. This marks the highest weekly close since July 2025 within the range. Unlike the prior week, which showed rejection near the 50-day EMA (35,011.91) and 200-day EMA (35,258.03) with a long upper wick, price has now convincingly broken above both averages, indicating a potential trend transition. The 200-day EMA remains flat, highlighting prior consolidation, while the rising 50-day EMA suggests building momentum. Weekly RSI (14) has crossed above 50, confirming strengthening bullish momentum.
Trend Analysis:
From March to June 2025, Nifty Energy index surged nearly 21% in a clear bullish trend before entering a consolidation phase from July onward between 33,500 and 36,700. The first rejection at 36,700 in July 2025 led to a two-month decline, and notably, the subsequent recovery back to resistance also took two months, reflecting balanced price rotation. However, the second rejection in November 2025 resulted in a longer three-month decline stretching into January 2026. In sharp contrast, the latest rebound has retraced that entire three month fall in just two weeks, barely 10 trading sessions. This dramatic time compression in recovery clearly highlights accelerating upside strength and growing bullish dominance.
Industry Analysis:
The Union Budget 2026–27 boosted capital expenditure to ₹12.2 lakh crore, earmarking ₹32,914 crore for New & Renewable Energy, ₹29,996 crore for Power, ₹30,443 crore for Petroleum & Natural Gas, and launching a ₹20,000 crore Carbon Capture programme to accelerate energy transition. India is the third-largest electricity producer with 505 GW installed capacity, while electricity demand is projected to grow 6–6.5 % annually through FY30. Renewables now exceed 195 GW, targeting 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030 alongside a 100 GW nuclear goal by 2047. Diesel and petrol demand is set to double by 2045, supported by expanded refining capacity expected to reach 657 MTPA by 2040. Strategic petroleum reserves and 100% FDI in upstream and refining enhance energy security. The power sector’s transmission network is expanding, with India adding 20 GW of renewable capacity in FY24 alone. Combined policy continuity and strong fundamentals position the Indian energy complex for sustained long-term growth.
Leading Picks in the Energy Space:
- POWERGRID.
- TORNTPOWER.
- ENERGY – Mirae Asset Nifty Energy ETF.
Conclusion:
The Nifty Energy Index is showing renewed structural strength after prolonged accumulation, with momentum accelerating toward the upper range. As long as the index holds above 33,000, the broader structure remains positive. A sustained break below this level would turn the trend bearish, while a decisive breakout above 36,700 could lead the index toward lifetime highs.
Key supports: 35,250 / 35,000 / 34,000.
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