{"id":31676,"date":"2025-03-03T18:24:55","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T12:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=31676"},"modified":"2025-03-03T18:32:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T13:02:40","slug":"market-decline-small-temporary-dip-or-the-beginning-of-a-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-basics\/investment-definitions\/market-decline-small-temporary-dip-or-the-beginning-of-a-crash\/31676","title":{"rendered":"Market Decline \u2013 Small Temporary Dip or the Beginning of a Crash?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Blog-Banner.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Blog-Banner-1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31677\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Blog-Banner-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Blog-Banner-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Blog-Banner-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Blog-Banner-1536x768.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Blog-Banner-2048x1024.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">What happened?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">Sensex is down 14%!<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/01.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"845\" height=\"443\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/01.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/01.png 845w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/01-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/01-768x403.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 845px) 100vw, 845px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Why?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Global Trade Tensions<\/strong> \u2013 U.S. tariffs creating uncertainty.<br><\/li><li><strong>Earnings Growth Slowdown<\/strong> \u2013 Weak corporate results for Indian Corporates<br><\/li><li><strong>FII Selling<\/strong> \u2013 Foreign investors pulling out amid valuation concerns<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This leads to the inevitable question\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Is the current market decline a small temporary fall or the start of a large market crash?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let me start with an honest confession\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>I don\u2019t know. Neither does anyone else.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is a simple reminder of this hard to accept reality.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"26. An honest confession by Udayan Mukherjee of CNBCTV18.\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KMKLiMAfdGA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Since we can\u2019t predict the future, the real question is: <em>How do we navigate this market decline?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where our framework comes in\u2014helping us assess <em>where we are in the market cycle<\/em> and <em>planning in advance <\/em>for different scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">What does history tell us about market declines?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The last <strong>45+ years history <\/strong>of <strong>Sensex<\/strong>, has a simple reminder for all of us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#980000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Indian Equity Markets Experience a Temporary Fall EVERY YEAR!<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"456\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-1024x456.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31679\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-1024x456.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-768x342.png 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1.png 1163w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, a<strong> 10-20% fall <\/strong>is <strong>almost a given<\/strong> <strong>every year!&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, there were <strong>only 4 <\/strong>out of<strong> 45 calendar years <\/strong>(1984, 2014, 2017, 2023) where the <strong>intra-year decline was less than 10%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But here comes the good part. While markets faced<strong> intra-year declines<\/strong> of <strong>10-20% almost every year<\/strong>,<strong> 3 out of 4 years still ended <\/strong>with <strong>positive returns<\/strong>, showing that these declines were <strong>usually short-lived, with recoveries happening within the same year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"474\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2-1-1024x474.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31680\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2-1-1024x474.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2-1-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2-1-768x356.png 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2-1.png 1105w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Now that we understand how common a 10-20% decline is, let\u2019s assess the current market decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>At ~14% off the peak, this decline falls well within historical norms.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Viewed in context, there\u2019s nothing unusual or surprising about it!<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#980000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">But what about the larger falls (&gt;30%)?&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Let us again take the help of history to form a view on how common it is for the market to have a fall of more than 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/3-1024x429.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31681\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/3-1024x429.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/3-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/3-768x322.png 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/3.png 1186w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>As seen above, a<strong> sharp fall <\/strong>of <strong>30-60% is a lot less frequent<\/strong> than the 10-20% fall. They <strong>usually occur once every 7-10 years.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These <strong>sharp declines have also been temporary<\/strong>, as the Indian equity markets have <strong>consistently recovered<\/strong> and <strong>moved upward <\/strong>over the <strong>long run<\/strong>, driven by <strong>earnings growth.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"552\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/4-1024x552.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/4-1024x552.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/4-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/4-768x414.png 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/4.png 1198w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Now that leads to the next important question.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Since every large decline will eventually have to start with a small decline, how do we differentiate between a normal 10-20% fall vs the start of a large market crash?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The equity market cycle can be viewed in three phases \u2013 <strong>1) Bull, 2) Bubble and 3) Bear.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>When in a \u2018Bubble Phase\u2019, the odds of a 10-20% correction converting into a large fall is very high.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#980000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">How do you check for a Market Bubble?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A Bubble as per our framework is usually characterized by<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li><strong>\u2018Late Phase\u2019 of Earnings Cycle<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>\u2018Very Expensive\u2019 Valuations <\/strong>(measured by FundsIndia Valuemeter)<\/li><li><strong>\u2018Euphoric\u2019 Sentiments <\/strong>(measured via our FINAL Framework \u2013 <strong>F<\/strong>lows,<strong> I<\/strong>POs, Surge in <strong>N<\/strong>ew Investors, Sharp <strong>A<\/strong>cceleration in Price, <strong>L<\/strong>everage)<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>We evaluate the above using our <strong>Three Signal Framework <\/strong>and <strong>Bubble Market Indicator (built based on 30+ indicators)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#980000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">What is our current evaluation?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Evaluating the above 3 signals, currently we <strong>see no signs of a market bubble<\/strong> as we are in<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li><strong>Neutral Valuations <\/strong>(and not \u2018very expensive\u2019)<\/li><li><strong>Mid Phase of Earnings Cycle <\/strong>(and not \u2018late phase\u2019)<\/li><li><strong>Neutral Sentiments <\/strong>(no signs of \u2018euphoria\u2019)<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, our framework suggests that<strong> we are not in an extreme bubble market scenario.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color:#980000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Putting all this together \u2013 Here is the answer for your question<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#333333\" class=\"has-inline-color\">The likelihood of the current fall converting into a large fall (&gt;30%) is very low.&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-luminous-vivid-amber-color\">There is always a \u2018BUT\u2026\u2019<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h3><strong><span style=\"color:#980000\" class=\"has-inline-color\">But, what if despite us not seeing a bubble at the current juncture the market corrects more than 20% (as there is still a low probability)?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned in the beginning, while the odds of a large fall is very low, there is still a small probability that this becomes a large fall.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The good part is that if we get a large fall where the starting conditions are not indicating a bubble, the recoveries usually tend to be very sharp and swift (example &#8211; 2020 recovery post covid crash).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"519\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/5-1024x519.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/5-1024x519.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/5-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/5-768x389.png 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/5.png 1207w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>This simple insight can be converted into our advantage if we are able to <strong>deploy more money into equities from our debt portion at lower market levels during a sharp market fall.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words if we get a fall of more than 20% correction (read as Sensex levels below 69,000), then it\u2019s a great opportunity to increase your equity exposure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This can be put into action via the<strong> \u2018CRISIS\u2019 plan<\/strong>. Here is how it works:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pre-decide a portion of your debt allocation (say Y) to be deployed into equities if in case market corrects from current peak levels (86k)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>If Sensex Falls by ~20% (at 69,000 levels) \u2013 Move 20% of Y into equities<\/li><li>If Sensex Falls by ~30% (at 60,000 levels) \u2013 Move 30% of Y into equities<\/li><li>If Sensex Falls by ~40% (at 52,000 levels)&nbsp; \u2013 Move 40% of Y into equities<\/li><li>If Sensex Falls by ~50% (at 43,000 levels)&nbsp; \u2013 Move remaining portion from Y into equities<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>*This is a rough plan and can be adapted to based on your own risk profile<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>While this may feel counterintuitive and could bring short-term pain if markets continue to fall, remember\u2014<strong>past declines always look like opportunities in hindsight, while current declines always feel like risks.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How you respond to this decline\u2014embracing it as an opportunity or letting fear drive you out of equities\u2014will ultimately define your success as a long-term investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">So, what should you do now in your portfolio?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since this decline didn\u2019t start from a bubble, the odds of it turning into a major crash are low.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So at the current juncture,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Maintain your original split <\/strong>between<strong> Equity <\/strong>and <strong>Debt exposure <\/strong>in your existing portfolio<\/li><li>If your Original Long Term Asset Allocation split is for example 70% Equity &amp; 30% Debt, continue with the same (do not increase or reduce equity allocation)<\/li><li><strong>Rebalance Equity allocation if it falls short by more than 5%<\/strong> from original allocation, i.e. move some money from debt to equity and bring it back to original long term asset allocation<\/li><li><strong>Continue your existing SIPs<\/strong><\/li><li>Make sure your equity portfolio is<strong> well diversified <\/strong>across<strong> different investment styles (quality, value, growth, midcap and momentum) <\/strong>and<strong> geographies. Kindly refer to our Five Finger Strategy for details.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How to invest new money?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Debt Allocation: <\/strong>Invest now<\/li><li><strong>Equity Allocation: <\/strong>Invest <strong>50% immediately<\/strong> and gradually deploy the remaining <strong>50% via 3 Months Weekly STP<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What should you do if the current market decline extends beyond 20%?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Activate <\/strong>the <strong>CRISIS Plan!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color:#0b5394\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Here is a simple visual summary of how to deal with MARKET DECLINES&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Market-Falls-framework_March-2025-scaled.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"734\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Market-Falls-framework_March-2025-1024x734.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31684\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Market-Falls-framework_March-2025-1024x734.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Market-Falls-framework_March-2025-300x215.jpg 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Market-Falls-framework_March-2025-768x551.jpg 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Market-Falls-framework_March-2025-1536x1102.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Market-Falls-framework_March-2025-2048x1469.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-luminous-vivid-amber-color\">Summing it up<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The simple idea is to accept that short term market movements are not in our control, but how we respond and take advantage of any sharp temporary falls is completely under our control.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is exactly what we attempt to do by preparing and pre-loading our decisions for different market scenarios. This way you are able to live with the typical 10-20% decline tantrums that the market throws at you on a regular basis without panicking.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, the not-so-frequent large falls that in hindsight turn out to be opportunities can also be taken advantage of in real time using the CRISIS Plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Happy Investing \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Annexure:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You can find a quick rationale for our Equity view based on our Three Signal Framework below:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Earnings Growth Cycle: Mid Phase of Earnings Cycle &#8211; Expect Reasonable Earnings Growth over the next 3-5 years<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Why do we think we are at the middle of the cycle?<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li><strong>Corporate Profits to GDP has improved<\/strong> from its lows of 1.6% in FY20 <strong>to<\/strong> <strong>5.0% in FY24 &#8211; previous peak was at 6.4%<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>BSE 100 ROE<\/strong> (Return on Equity) has significantly improved from its lows of 9% in Jul-20 and is currently at <strong>17.3% <\/strong>&#8211; previous peak was at 25.1%&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Corporate Debt-Equity Ratio lowest <\/strong>in <strong>15 years&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Capex Cycle<\/strong> is in the <strong>early stages <\/strong>&#8211; GFCF at 30.8% (previous peak at 35.8%)<\/li><li><strong>Credit Cycle <\/strong>still at early stages &#8211; <strong>12.4% y-o-y credit growth <\/strong>(previous peak at &gt;30% credit growth)<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Mega Trends &#8211; Multi-Year Demand Drivers&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li><strong>Acceleration in Manufacturing <\/strong>&#8211; Large domestic market provides competitive scale, Global realignment of supply chains (China+1), etc.<\/li><li><strong>Banks well positioned for next lending cycle <\/strong>&#8211;&nbsp; Significant pick up in credit growth + NPAs are at historical lows. <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Capex Revival<\/strong> &#8211; Infra + High Capacity Utilization + Early signs of corporate capex and real estate pickup. <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>India as \u2018Office to the World\u2019 <\/strong>&#8211; Tech &amp; Other Services<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Structural Domestic Consumption story <\/strong>led by <strong>Per Capita Income<\/strong> <strong>crossing \u201cTipping Point\u201d of USD 2000<\/strong> in 2019 &#8211; leads to increased discretionary spends vs essential spends as observed globally + <strong>Income Pyramid undergoing a major transition<\/strong> + Government focus on consumption<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Corporate India Well Positioned to Capture Demand<\/strong> &#8211; led by Consolidation of market leader, strong Balance Sheets, several key reforms (PLI, GST etc) and digital infrastructure. <strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Key Risks to Monitor <\/strong>&#8211; US Tariff Uncertainty, Geopolitical Concerns in the Middle East, Global inflation, Central bank actions.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Valuations: \u2018NEUTRAL\u2019&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Our in-house valuation indicator <strong>FI Valuemeter<\/strong> based on MCAP\/GDP, Price to Earnings Ratio, Price To Book ratio and Bond Yield to Earnings Yield has reduced from 64 last month to <strong>50 <\/strong>(as on 28-Feb-2025) &#8211; and is in the <strong>\u2018Neutral\u2019 Zone&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/valuemeter.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"329\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/valuemeter-1024x329.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31685\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/valuemeter-1024x329.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/valuemeter-300x96.png 300w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/valuemeter-768x247.png 768w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/valuemeter.png 1146w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sentiment: \u2018MIXED\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a <strong>contrarian indicator<\/strong> and we become positive when sentiments are pessimistic and vice versa<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>DII flows continue to be strong on a 12-month basis.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>FII Flows continue to remain weak.<\/strong> This is also reflected in the <strong>FII ownership of NSE Listed Universe<\/strong> which is currently at its <strong>10 year low<\/strong> of <strong>17.9%<\/strong> (peak ownership at ~22.4%). This indicates <strong>significant scope for higher FII inflows.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Negative FII 12M flows <\/strong>have historically been <strong>followed<\/strong> by <strong>strong equity returns<\/strong> over the<strong> next 2-3 years<\/strong> (as FII flows eventually come back in the subsequent periods).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"738\" height=\"646\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31686\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/6.png 738w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/6-300x263.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 738px) 100vw, 738px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>IPOs <\/strong>&#8211;<strong> Sentiments<\/strong> have slowly<strong> started <\/strong>to <strong>revive <\/strong>with most <strong>IPOs <\/strong>getting <strong>oversubscribed.<\/strong> But <strong>no signs<\/strong> of<strong> euphoria except<\/strong> in the <strong>SME segment.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Past 5Y Annual Return <\/strong>is at<strong> 15% <\/strong>(Sensex TRI) &#8211; is lagging <strong>underlying earnings growth at 17%<\/strong> and nowhere close to what investors experienced in the 2003-07 bull market (&gt;45% CAGR)<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Overall<\/strong>, the <strong>sentiments<\/strong> are <strong>Mixed <\/strong>and we see<strong> no signs<\/strong> of<strong> \u2018Euphoria\u2019<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened? Sensex is down 14%! Why? Global Trade Tensions \u2013 U.S. tariffs creating uncertainty. Earnings Growth Slowdown \u2013 Weak corporate results for Indian Corporates FII Selling \u2013 Foreign investors pulling out amid valuation concerns This leads to the inevitable question\u2026 Is the current market decline a small temporary fall or the start of a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":31677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,509,376],"tags":[758,519,494,1163,108,931,865,705,575,146,487,803,870],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Market Decline \u2013 Small Temporary Dip or the Beginning of a Crash?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In our latest blog we discuss the current market decline in Indian Equities and how to navigate through these declines and dips\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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