{"id":21589,"date":"2021-07-06T16:21:51","date_gmt":"2021-07-06T10:51:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=21589"},"modified":"2021-08-31T16:25:25","modified_gmt":"2021-08-31T10:55:25","slug":"what-happened-to-indias-worst-market-timer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/what-happened-to-indias-worst-market-timer\/21589","title":{"rendered":"What happened to India’s worst market timer?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The movie \u2018Just My Luck\u2019 starring Lindsay Lohan and Chris Pine has an interesting plot involving luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lindsay plays a character who is always lucky. She works for a great company. She wins every time she plays scratch cards. When she leaves her house, it even stops raining. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris, on the other hand, plays a character who is totally out of luck. He works as a janitor. It starts raining when he steps outside. And no matter what he does, something always goes wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What happens when their lives get intertwined makes up the rest of the story!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

This movie got me wondering about the role of luck in equity investing \u2013 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What would be the portfolio returns of the luckiest and unluckiest equity investors?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Let us find out..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We will take the example of two hypothetical investors Ms Lucky & Mr Unlucky who have been diligently saving a portion of their salary every month for the last 2 decades. As their salaries increased by 5% every year, they also increased their savings by 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They differ, though, in when and how they invest their money in equities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both of them believe in timing their entries into equities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So they keep accumulating their savings in a debt fund every month, and they deploy their entire accumulated amount into equities if they feel the timing is right. They continue with this process for the last 2 decades. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr Unlucky – Always invests in equity just before a market fall<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Due to his never-ending misfortune and bad timing skills, Mr Unlucky always ends up shifting his accumulated savings from debt into equity just before a market crash (>20% fall).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In the past two decades, he moved his money seven times into equity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every single time, the market fell by over 20% immediately after he invested due to different reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ms Lucky – Always invests in equity at the bottom of a market fall<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Thanks to her incredible luck, she moves the accumulated amount into equity exactly at the bottom of all major falls (>20% declines), every time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Now here is a quick quiz for you…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the annualized return for Mr Unlucky over the past 20 years?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

a) 0 to 5%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

b) 5 to 10% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

c) 10 to 15%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take a guess?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Intuitively given the unbelievably bad timing skills, it looks like it should be in the 0-5% range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But hold your breath – Option C is the right answer!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr Unlucky made a decent return of 11.8% annually despite his bad timing skills!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just to put that in perspective, if he had only invested in debt, he would have made an annualized return of just 7.8% in the past two decades – which is significantly lower than the returns of the unlucky equity investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Takeaway 1: Even if you were unlucky and only invested right before large market falls, you still made decent returns over the long run – much higher than debt returns<\/big><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the annualized return for Ms Lucky over the past 20 years?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the case of the lucky investor who timed and invested perfectly at the bottom of all seven declines, the CAGR would have been 16%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is fairly intuitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here comes the interesting part…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What if there was another investor – a normal fellow human being like you and me – who has no ability to predict the markets. Let us call him Mr Humble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr Humble instead of regularly investing in debt funds and moving it into equities did a simpler thing – a monthly SIP directly into equities (via Nifty 50 TRI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the annualized return for Mr Humble (the SIP investor) over the past 20 years?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A cool 14.7%!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You read that right. The humble SIP investor\u2019s return was pretty close to the lucky investor who had perfect timing foresight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Takeaway 2: A Simple SIP comes pretty close to the lucky market timer over the long run<\/big><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why are the returns good even when invested at the wrong time?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The answer is really simple \u2013 TIME <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though the unlucky investor invested only at the wrong time, he didn\u2019t take his money out after that and withstood all the future declines without panicking out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This simple but difficult act of patience gave the portfolio a long enough time horizon to let compounding work its magic. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there is a natural tendency to shrug this off given the simplicity of the solution, here is some hard-hitting evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the returns of lumpsum investments in Nifty 50 TRI till date when invested right before the major falls of the past two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

As seen above, a long time horizon compensates even for the worst starting points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takeaway 3: TIME is a superpower. It works well even for the most unlucky investor!<\/big><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summing it up<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As seen above with the superpower of time even the most unlucky investor ended up with a reasonable outcome outperforming debt funds and inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A simple SIP removes the need to time the markets and if given enough time provides a return that is almost as good as the hypothetical lucky market timer (who will never exist in reality)!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have a long time horizon, a simple SIP in a few good equity funds for the next 10-15 years, and the patience to let it run ignoring all the intermittent noise, is all it takes to ensure a good investment outcome. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do not let the inherent simplicity of the solution undermine its ability to deliver the magic of compounding. <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The movie \u2018Just My Luck\u2019 starring Lindsay Lohan and Chris Pine has an interesting plot involving luck. Lindsay plays a character who is always lucky. She works for a great company. She wins every time she plays scratch cards. When she leaves her house, it even stops raining.  Chris, on the other hand, plays a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":21611,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,66,509],"tags":[201,108,587,289,148,689,682,681,575,516,67,49,614,484],"yoast_head":"\nWhat happened to India's worst market timer?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We will take the example of two hypothetical investors Ms Lucky & Mr Unlucky who have been diligently saving every month.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/mf-research\/what-happened-to-indias-worst-market-timer\/21589\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What happened to India's 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