{"id":17546,"date":"2020-01-28T15:59:17","date_gmt":"2020-01-28T10:29:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/?p=17546"},"modified":"2020-02-04T10:55:47","modified_gmt":"2020-02-04T05:25:47","slug":"are-mid-cap-funds-a-must-have","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/research-desk\/are-mid-cap-funds-a-must-have\/17546","title":{"rendered":"Are Mid Cap funds a must-have?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the last two years, giving the go-by to the gloomy macroeconomic situation, large caps have continued to trend upwards. With investors flocking towards safety, inflows into the market have been chasing a select group of large cap stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mid-caps on the hand, have corrected sharply since their highs in Jan 2018. This has broadly mirrored the country\u2019s weakening macroeconomic growth.<\/span> After declining for five quarters at a stretch, India\u2019s GDP growth rate came down to 4.5% in the Sep 2019 quarter.\u00a0This was the weakest growth in over six years.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The unearthing of corporate governance issues and the liquidity tightening and risk-averseness that followed the NBFC crisis too soured the market sentiment towards small and mid-sized companies. From its peak in Jan 2018, the Nifty Mid-cap 100 Index lost 29% by Aug 2019. While the index has since recovered, it is nowhere near the highs of Jan 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>That brings us to two questions.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Should mid-cap funds form part of your overall equity portfolio?\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<li><b>Is this a good time to invest in such funds?<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here we analyse the first question from a longer-term perspective.<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We will take up the second question in another post.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Mid-cap index outperforms<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We first check whether mid-caps have outperformed large caps over time. If that\u2019s not the case, why bother investing in mid-cap funds given the inherent risks involved. Several mid-cap companies have faced corporate governance issues in the past. Also, insufficient liquidity is a concern for such stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We compare how the Nifty 100 TRI (Large cap Index) and the Nifty Midcap 100 TRI (Midcap Index) have fared across market cycles through 2003-19 and during the period as a whole too.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-1-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-1-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"632\" height=\"355\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-1-2.png 632w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-1-2-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 632px) 100vw, 632px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taking a complete cycle (from peak to peak or trough to trough) ensures the analysis spans a period that includes both a market uptrend and a downturn. This is because, while large caps fall relatively less in a bear market, their rise in a bull market too can be moderate. Mid-caps, on the other hand, can fall steeply in downturns but can also recover sharply once the tide turns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The analysis shows that the Nifty Midcap 100 TRI has outperformed the Nifty 100 TRI across <\/b><b><i>all<\/i> market cycles since 2003. The extent of out-performance\u00a0though varies across periods &#8211; from 0.3% to 3.5%.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">See the table below:<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-2.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17548 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"639\" height=\"291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-2.png 639w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-2-300x137.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One may, however, argue that these calculations are based on the assumption of an investor staying invested through one complete market cycle. But, that may not always be the case except for by sheer chance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, we check if the Midcap Index has beaten the Large cap Index over the long run (across market cycles) irrespective of when the investor enters and exits. Assuming 5 years to be long term, we compare the indices on their 5-year rolling returns during 2003-19.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The results show that the Midcap Index has outperformed the Large cap Index 78% of the time by an average of 2% points over this period on a 5-year rolling return basis.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The conclusions change when we look at the short-term. Based on 1-year rolling returns, the Midcap Index has outperformed the Large cap Index only 56% of the time. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Though the average out-performance at 4.2% points is higher than that for the 5-year period.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That is, the chances of the Midcap Index outperforming the Large cap Index are higher (78% versus 56%) when the investment period is longer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>So far so good. But, you may ask- how does the Midcap <em>Index<\/em> outperforming the Large cap Index prove that mid-cap<em> funds<\/em> may outperform large cap funds.<\/p>\n<h4><b>Mid-cap funds beat their benchmark<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, we take<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0the top five (based on AUM) mid-cap and large cap funds that have been around for at least 15 years and see how they have performed during Jan 2006 &#8211; Dec 2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>We find that the top mid-cap funds have outperformed the Midcap Index 84% of the time by 2.8% points on average on a 5-year rolling return basis. Furthermore, the top mid-cap funds have outperformed their large cap counterparts 71% of the time by 3.6% points on average.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><b>So, if your investment horizon is sufficiently long, then mid cap funds can offer you relatively better returns than large cap funds; though there will be phases of out-performance\u00a0and under-performance\u00a0in between that you will have to endure.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">See the chart below:<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-3.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17550 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"637\" height=\"373\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-3.png 637w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-3-300x176.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 637px) 100vw, 637px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But if mid-cap funds have a higher probability of out-performance, then why not go the whole hog instead of investing only a portion of your corpus in mid caps?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s because one needs to consider the risk aspect too. For there\u2019s no such thing as a free lunch.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Stomach greater risk\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While mid-cap funds have the potential to deliver higher returns long-term, the risk of their under-performance is also greater. The Downside Capture Ratio (DCR) makes this clear.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>High downside capture ratio<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><b>A DCR of 137% for the Nifty Midcap 100 TRI (relative to the Nifty 100 TRI) for 2003-19 shows that the Midcap Index has significantly under-performed\u00a0in the bad years.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> A value greater than 100% implies that the Midcap Index has fallen more than the Large cap Index (or has captured more of the downside) in periods when the markets fell.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Though the reverse too holds true. An Upside Capture Ratio of 126% indicates that the Midcap Index has also done better than the Large cap Index in good times. A value greater than 100% implies that the Midcap Index has risen more than the Large cap Index (or has captured more of the upside) in periods when the markets were up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Steeper drawdowns\u00a0<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Maximum Drawdown Chart (below) shows how the Nifty Midcap 100 TRI Index has fared in the down-years.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-4.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17551 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-4.png\" alt=\"Mid Cap funds\" width=\"641\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-4.png 641w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-4-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 641px) 100vw, 641px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The chart plots the daily returns for both the Nifty 100 TRI and Nifty Midcap 100 TRI indices. It shows the extent of fall in each index each day compared to its previous peak until then. <\/span><b>As the Maximum Drawdown chart shows, the Midcap Index has fallen more than the Large cap Index.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The table below picks out a few cases of sharp drawdowns from the chart. As you can see, the Midcap Index falls are steeper than those for the Large cap Index in nearly all instances.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-5-1.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17556 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-5-1.png\" alt=\"Mid Cap funds\" width=\"299\" height=\"173\" \/><\/a>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Higher intra-year volatility\u00a0<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><b>The difference between the two indices becomes clearer when we look at the Intra-Year Drawdowns.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Here we plot only the sharpest (and not all) drawdowns for each year for the indices.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-6.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17553 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-6.png\" alt=\"Mid Cap funds\" width=\"629\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-6.png 629w, https:\/\/fundsindia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/midcap-6-300x153.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" \/><\/a>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Take 2013 for instance. While the steepest drawdown (from the peak to the trough for the year) in the Large cap Index was minus 15%, that for the Mid-cap Index was minus 26%. The steepest drawdowns for a year are however not the same as yearly returns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Large cap Index and the Midcap Index returns for 2013 (from 1 Jan to 30 Dec) were 8% and minus 4%, both higher than the respective drawdowns. What the drawdowns reflect is intra-year volatility &#8211; the sharpest fall in the index returns during the year &#8211; and not between the first and the last day of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>So, unless you have an appetite for risk (read as the ability to withstand intermittent sharp declines) and the ability to stay invested long-term, mid-cap funds may not be for you.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<h4><b>Mid-caps in your portfolio?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is, therefore, a case for investors to have midcap funds in their portfolio. But, this works only for long-term investors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, if your risk profile is such that you invest 60% (or higher) of your investible corpus in equity, then you can consider investing 1\/3rd to 1\/4th of this in mid-caps.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Essentially, there are two sides to investing in mid-caps as there are to any investment &#8211; risk and return. At any point, one will dominate the other. While it was high returns that were highlighted in the 2014-18 rally, the route after that has brought risk under focus. But, if you\u2019ve stayed put so far, stick to your chosen asset allocation and stay invested.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Also, while trying to time your entry and exit to and from the mid-cap space is tough, one can get some sense on where one is in the mid-cap cycle by looking at some broad indicators such as valuations, market sentiment and earnings growth <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(more on this in a later post)<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The segment sometimes enters extremes in terms of valuations, i.e when the mid-cap valuations are very cheap and the market is getting overly pessimistic on them (as seen in 2013) or valuations are very expensive and the market is becoming overly optimistic on this space (as seen in 2017). In times such as these, you can choose to raise or reduce your exposure to mid-caps. One must, however, consider setting a limit on such tactical moves.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More importantly though, most of the time (except for during\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">these rare extremes), investors should adhere to the pre-decided mid-cap exposure in their overall portfolio.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the last two years, giving the go-by to the gloomy macroeconomic situation, large caps have continued to trend upwards. With investors flocking towards safety, inflows into the market have been chasing a select group of large cap stocks. Mid-caps on the hand, have corrected sharply since their highs in Jan 2018. This has broadly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":17560,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[506,509,532],"tags":[517,289,148,405,266,516,67,518,151],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are Mid Cap funds a must-have?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mid Cap funds have corrected sharply since their highs in Jan 2018. 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